Canada
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
The Responsible Online Gaming Association (ROGA) has launched the “Know Your Play” campaign in partnership with EPIC Global Solutions, Kindbridge Behavioral Health, and the Responsible Gambling Council (RGC). This is a major initiative designed to provide college-aged students with detailed content focused on responsible gaming, mental health and well-being, and financial literacy.
“College students are learning to navigate newfound financial independence and equipping this age group with resources to make informed decisions that can build good financial habits will serve them throughout their lives, whether they engage in gaming or not. While previous programs have focused on student-athletes, our campaign intends to educate the broader student population about responsible gaming concepts that can help this age group set realistic expectations and see gaming as a form of entertainment, not as a way of making money,” ROGA Executive Director Dr. Jennifer Shatley said.
The campaign utilizes digital learning tools, resources, and videos available to all college-aged students at knowyourplay.org, even if they are not enrolled in a university. These resources will educate students on key responsible gaming concepts, including randomness, impulsiveness, and limit setting, while addressing myths like the illusion of control in sports betting. It will also focus on the role stress and mental health play in overall student wellbeing and provide practical tips for management. Additionally, extended resources will be piloted with select universities.
“EPIC has vast expertise and experience in creating programs that resonate with college-aged audiences and are delighted to partner with ROGA on a campaign that will provide critical education to college students across the country. By combining expert knowledge with personal stories, our program aims to foster a well-rounded understanding of financial literacy, decision-making, and risk-taking,” Teresa Fiore, SVP of Partnerships at EPIC Global Solutions, said.
The campaign will begin rolling out at college campuses over the next several weeks with in-person learning sessions and workshops in tandem with digital delivery tools for greater accessibility and reach, ensuring that the program effectively engages students across diverse campuses and demographics.
“College life presents unique pressures, from financial independence to academic performance, all of which can impact mental health. By fostering decision-making skills that bridge these areas, we’re helping students build resilience, manage stress, and develop healthy habits that will serve them well beyond their college years,” Kindbridge Group CEO Daniel Umfleet, said.
“College students face an increased risk of harm from gambling, making prevention education essential in protecting this important audience. RGC has a long history of creating prevention programs for young adults, and we are proud to partner with ROGA on this crucial initiative. This campaign will equip students with the knowledge and skills needed to make informed decisions should they choose to gamble. By providing valuable information, digital tools, and resources, we are empowering young adults to approach gambling with a lower-risk mindset and reduce potential harm,” RGC CEO Sarah McCarthy said.
The post ROGA Launches National College Education Campaign appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
Siyata Mobile Inc, a global vendor of Push-to-Talk over Cellular (PoC) devices and cellular signal booster systems, announced a new order for SD7 handsets and related accessories for a new customer, a leading gaming and entertainment company located in Canada.
This order marks one of Siyata’s first entries into the gaming and casino industry, a sector with significant growth potential for the Company. The customer operates dozens of gaming, entertainment, and hospitality venues across Canada and will deploy the SD7 handsets for Push-to-Talk (PTT) communications among its security and maintenance teams.
“This new order is an exciting milestone for Siyata as we expand further into the gaming and casino market. There is a growing industry trend toward modern, cellular-based communication solutions. Casinos require reliable, cost-effective, and easy-to-use communication tools with exceptional audio clarity, and our SD7 handsets and accessories are an ideal fit for those demands. This casino is replacing traditional Land Mobile Radio (LMR) two-way radios with advanced PoC technology for its security and maintenance personnel. The SD7’s robust capabilities, including instant push-to-talk functionality and superior coverage, make it an attractive choice for businesses prioritizing security and operational efficiency,” Marc Seelenfreund, CEO of Siyata Mobile, said.
The post Siyata Mobile Announces New Order from Leading Canadian Gaming and Entertainment Company appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
CasinoCanada, the number one gambling guide for players in Canada, is thrilled to announce its new partnership with Ocean Spin a brand under the umbrella of LaLa Stars.
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Ocean Spin Casino, a brand of LaLa Stars company, despite being quite new on the iGaming market, is a huge online gambling platform where all casino newcomers are greeted with a welcome bonus of 100% for up to €500, and 200 free spins plus one Bonus Crab. It comes as a first deposit bonus for a minimum deposit amount of €20. Sports-betting enthusiasts can also claim a welcome bonus of 100% for up to €100.
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“We are excited to meet our new partner Ocean Spin Casino, and hope to bring maximum use and value to our community,” said Aleksandra Drigo, Sales Director at CasinoCanada. “This partnership perfectly reflects our dedication to highlighting the best in the gaming industry while offering our audience valuable insights and chances to experience top-notch gaming. We hope for a productive and long-term partnership!”
The partnership is now live, featuring LaLa Stars reviews and exclusive offers on the CasinoCanada website. This collaboration is set to deliver even more thrilling updates, exclusive content, and personalized promotions for the Canadian gambling community.
The post CasinoCanada Started a New Partnership With Ocean Spin by LaLa Stars appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
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