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Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare

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Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency

Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.

The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.

To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).

Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.

In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.

In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?

Not enough data, captain

But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.

Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.

Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season –  or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.

Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.

Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…

In polls, we trust

In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.

If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?

Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.

And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.

So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?

Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.

While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.

That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.

We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.

And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.

His opponent is at 63%. Who will win? 

We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.

What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.

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Canada

LuckyStart Casino Adds New Payment Method

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LuckyStart Casino has announced the addition of a new payment method – Interac – available for all players in Canada, in order to make it easier for their customers to fund their account balance and cash out their winnings quickly.

The brand is aware of the popularity of this payment method amongst Canadian players, and hence, it has decided to add it and enable flexible deposit and withdrawal limits, in order to be considered as the best Interac casino in Canada, especially since the brand is also releasing Interac-exclusive bonuses and promotions.

Furthermore, LuckyStart has announced flexible limits for deposits and withdrawals, to make it easier for players to fund their account balance and cash out their winnings, offering instant approval and same-day processing, which are traits that LuckyStart believes are going to position it as the best Interac casino in Canada.

LuckyStart now supports Interac on the desktop and mobile website, offers exclusive bonuses for Interac bonuses, as well as instant withdrawals, and unrestricted access to their catalog of 5000+ real money games.

LuckyStart believes there is no better way to celebrate an accomplishment in the online gambling world than by launching new bonuses and promotions. That’s why the brand has released a new welcome bonus package for all players who deposit via Interac, as LuckyStart envisions becoming the best Interac casino in Canada.

This new welcome bonus package available for all Interact deposits rewards players with up to $4800 in free bonus money across their first 4 deposits, along with 400 Free Spins. When compared to the welcome packages offered by other Interact casinos, LuckyStart stands out with the biggest offer currently available.

The post LuckyStart Casino Adds New Payment Method appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.

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Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario

Titanplay Re-launches in Ontario

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Titanplay, a fully licensed and regulated online gaming platform by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) and iGaming Ontario (iGO), announced its official re-launch in the Canadian province. This strategic re-entry introduces a refreshed experience tailored to Ontario’s dynamic audience of online casino players and sports bettors.

The re-launch marks a new chapter for Titanplay, with significant upgrades to its casino and sportsbook. Designed for Ontario residents, the new platform delivers a secure and compliant online gaming environment to casual players, strategic bettors, and high rollers alike.

Titanplay now offers an expanded library of certified casino games, including popular slots, live dealer tables, and exclusive titles from leading industry providers. The integrated sportsbook provides real-time odds and wide-ranging markets – from NHL and NBA to international soccer, tennis, and more. Players can enjoy faster performance, improved mobile access, and responsible gaming tools aligned with Ontario’s regulations, whether they prefer placing bets or spinning the reels.

The Titanplay’s platform is optimized for both desktop and mobile devices, offering seamless navigation and secure transactions. The 24/7 customer support, intuitive account management, and localized payment options round out the updated user experience.

Operating within Ontario’s regulated iGaming framework, Titanplay adheres strictly to all AGCO and iGO compliance requirements. This re-launch is more than just a platform update; it’s a commitment to local Ontario players who deserve fairness, choice, responsible gaming environment, data protection, and accountability from their gaming provider.

Titanplay is now live and accepting registrations across Ontario. Players must be 19 years of age or older and reside within the province to access the platform.

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AGCO takes action to remove unapproved gambling machines from Ontario convenience stores

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The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) is continuing its efforts to combat unregulated gambling and protect the public. As part of these efforts, the AGCO took steps this week to revoke the lottery seller registrations of a number of retailers in the GTA that were found to be offering unapproved electronic gambling machines under the Prime Slot brand.

The AGCO regulates all gambling in the province of Ontario to ensure gambling products and gaming sites are held to high standards of game integrity, player safety, and the protection of minors and vulnerable individuals.

Over the past decade, unregulated gaming machines have increasingly proliferated across North America. While they largely rely on chance like traditional slot machines, manufacturers have claimed they are games of skill and have installed terminals in convenience stores and other locations where gaming machines would otherwise be prohibited.

The AGCO will continue to take every action within its authority to protect the public against the risks that these unregulated machines pose – particularly in locations easily accessible to children and youth.

A registered lottery seller served with a Notice of Proposed Order to revoke their registration has the right to appeal the AGCO’s action within 15 days to the Licence Appeal Tribunal (LAT), an adjudicative tribunal that is part of Tribunals Ontario and independent of the AGCO.

“Unapproved gambling machines have no business being in convenience stores or other locations, particularly those that are available to children and youth. ” – Dr. Karin Schnarr, Chief Executive Officer and Registrar, AGCO

Background:

Under Section 10(b) of the Gaming Control Act, the Registrar shall refuse to register an applicant as a supplier or to renew the registration of an applicant as a supplier if there are reasonable grounds to believe that the applicant will not act as a supplier in accordance with law, or with integrity, honesty, or in the public interest.

Under Section 12 of the Gaming Control Act, the Registrar may propose to suspend or to revoke a registration for any reason that would disentitle the registrant to registration or renewal of registration under section 10 if the registrant were an applicant.

The post AGCO takes action to remove unapproved gambling machines from Ontario convenience stores appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.

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