

Canada
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
Canada
Northern Super League Partners with Stats Perform

Stats Perform, the global leader in sports AI, data and technology, has announced an official data partnership with the Northern Super League (NSL). The partnership will allow world-leading Opta data to be collected live from every NSL league game for the next three years.
Beginning this month, the Northern Super League (NSL) establishes a new era in Canadian sport as the country’s first professional domestic women’s soccer league — an ambitious and transformative initiative co-founded by former Canadian international and Olympic medallist Diana Matheson. Its inaugural season kicks off on April 16 and will feature six teams who have assembled multinational player rosters with extensive club and international experience, including 100-cap Canadian internationals Desiree Scott and Quinn.
Once the action begins, detailed data from every on-ball event, including advanced AI-powered Opta Analytics metrics such as Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA), will be captured and distributed via feeds and Stats Perform products, including OptaAI Studio. This will enable various broadcasters, publishers and rights holders to generate stories and insights throughout the NSL season and provide them straight to the league’s fans in real time.
As part of the agreement, the NSL’s League Office and every NSL club will also have access to Opta Search, part of OptaAI Studio. This will allow their content creators to leverage all Opta data collected during the NSL season in the creation of data-led stories on the stand-out performers, and will help them generate key talking points for publication on official league and club platforms. Opta Search will also empower the NSL’s media team to create a range of data visualizations, including player shot maps and touch maps, to visually illustrate the impact of different players’ on-field performances.
Christina Litz, NSL President, said: “We are thrilled to have Stats Perform on board as our official data partner. When we talk about detailed performance data in soccer, Opta is the gold standard, so we are delighted to have it powering each of our official digital channels. As the season progresses, we want to put the spotlight on all the on-field heroes who emerge and having access to world-class data will help us tell their stories and inspire a new generation of Canadian soccer fans.”
Steve Xeller, Chief Revenue Officer at Stats Perform, said: “Stats Perform has been a huge supporter of expansion leagues around the world, so we are very pleased to be partnering with NSL in the lead-up to their first domestic campaign. Seeing a fully professional women’s soccer league launch in Canada is an incredibly exciting development for the sport in North America and we see considerable potential in working proactively with the League’s Head Office to help the competition grow, using the power of AI and data-led storytelling to build fan communities across the continent.”
The post Northern Super League Partners with Stats Perform appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
Africa
INCENTIVE GAMES SIGNS EXCLUSIVE DISTRIBUTION DEAL FOR NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE, SOUTH AFRICA AND UK WITH LIGHT & WONDER
Leading B2B games provider, Incentive Games, today announced its new agreement with premium gaming company and content provider Light & Wonder, Inc.
Through this agreement, Incentive Games will distribute its premium pay-to-play games – including new arcade-style titles – to key global regulated markets including the USA, Canada, South Africa, UK, and within Europe via Light & Wonder’s extensive operator network. Additionally, Incentive Games’ popular free-to-play content will be made available to a wider audience through Light & Wonder’s content marketplace.
The agreement brings together two industry leaders in iGaming and the strengths of both companies to deliver exceptional player experiences and elevate customer engagement.
Ahmed Baker, Chief Commercial Officer at Incentive Games said, “This agreement is a landmark moment in our company’s history. Previously, we’ve worked directly with major operators such as bet365, FanDuel, and Sky Bet. Now, we can distribute our games via Light & Wonder, an exceptional aggregator that we trust will handle our games with care.”
Steve Mayes, Senior Director of Partners at Light & Wonder, said: “We are excited to work with Incentive Games, a leader in gamification solutions. We look forward to leveraging their innovative platform and bringing their customisable crash and fast game content to all major regulated markets.”
The post INCENTIVE GAMES SIGNS EXCLUSIVE DISTRIBUTION DEAL FOR NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE, SOUTH AFRICA AND UK WITH LIGHT & WONDER appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.
Canada
Soft2Bet’s ToonieBet Partners with the Ottawa Senators as Official Online Casino Partner

With the Ottawa Senators securing a playoff spot in the NHL, ToonieBet will be there every step of the way, engaging fans with exclusive giveaways, premium entertainment, and a casino experience that mirrors the team’s energy and excitement.
The Ottawa Senators and Tooniebet, an online casino for players across Ontario, announced a partnership that will make Tooniebet the NHL team’s Official Online Casino Partner.
Tooniebet, which launched in 2024 is part of Soft2Bet – one of the world’s fastest growing iGaming turnkey solutions providers with iGaming brands around the world with a portfolio of 19 global licenses, including Ontario.
Additional highlights of the Ottawa Senators and TonnieBet partnership will include:
- In-Arena & Broadcast Branding: Digitally enhanced dashboards for home and away games
- In-rink board signage for home games
- Virtual slot signage for various games
- Digital inventory throughout the Ottawa Senators site on NHL.com
- Direct Fan Engagement: Social contests and promotions hosted on Senators’ digital platforms
- Television Broadcast Branding: Digitally enhanced rink boards for home and away games
- In-arena rink board signage for home games
Martin Ballard, VP Corporate Partnerships, Ottawa Senators stated: “We are thrilled to welcome ToonieBet as an official partner of the Ottawa Senators. Cooperating with a brand that shares our commitment to providing fans with an exceptional and trusted experience is incredibly exciting. Together, we look forward to delivering memorable moments and engaging our passionate fanbase in new and innovative ways.”
Oksana Tsyhankova, Chief Marketing Officer at Soft2Bet, commented: “Partnering Soft2Bet’s ToonieBet brand with the Ottawa Senators is a significant milestone that reinforces our strong brand presence in Ontario. In a short period, we have achieved impressive performance and retention results, with a primary focus on localised, engaging experiences for Canadian players, which makes ToonieBet truly set itself apart.”
By tapping into the Senators’ digital platforms and in-arena presence, ToonieBet will stay close to the action and connect with fans in real, engaging ways while continuing to offer a top-quality online casino experience.
ToonieBet offers a fast, localised online casino experience for players in Ottawa and across Ontario. Through this partnership, fans will have the chance to win Senators merchandise and tickets while ToonieBet grows its presence in a competitive Ontario market. With in-arena branding, regional broadcast coverage, and digital promotions, ToonieBet will be highly visible to the team’s loyal supporters.
The post Soft2Bet’s ToonieBet Partners with the Ottawa Senators as Official Online Casino Partner appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
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