Canada
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
Golden Nugget Online Gaming has officially entered the Canada online casino market with its launch in Ontario.
Backed by DraftKings technology, the brand is now offering players a feature-rich mobile and desktop gaming platform. This move also marks the first time the Golden Nugget brand has expanded outside the US.
The casino debuted with more than 2000 slot titles, alongside blackjack, roulette, and craps. The platform is available on iOS and Android, ensuring accessibility across devices.
With its debut in “The Heartland Province,” Ontario becomes the fifth region where Golden Nugget operates, joining Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
Matt Kalish, President of DraftKings North America, noted that this development is a welcome opportunity for the brand to provide top-quality online casino gaming for players in a burgeoning iGaming market.
Kalish added: “Golden Nugget is one of the most iconic brands in gaming, and we are thrilled to be live in Ontario with its robust mobile casino offering. The Golden Nugget Online Gaming casino app offers hundreds of popular casino games, exclusive content, smooth navigation, premium support, and a dynamic loyalty program – all backed by DraftKings’ cutting-edge technology.”
Ontario’s regulated iGaming market is already crowded. iGaming Ontario reports that the province hosts 50 licensed operators and 87 active gaming websites. Importantly, online casinos account for 88% of cash wagers. In June alone, the vertical produced CA$243 million in net gaming revenue from CA$7.26 billion in total wagers.
Golden Nugget aims to stand out with both classic and exclusive content. Players can access land-based favorites like Huff N’ More Puff, Cleopatra, and Hypernova Megaways. Exclusive DraftKings titles such as Rocket, Dollar Up, and Quakey Shakey also enhance the library. Many jackpot titles even exceed $1 million.
The post Golden Nugget Online Casino Debuts in Ontario appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
Law enforcement in Alberta continues to search for the last suspect in a sophisticated fraud operation that targeted ATMs in Edmonton-area casinos and resulted in over CAD 1 million ($720,487) in losses throughout Western Canada.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has confirmed that Hisham Ismaeel, 28, remains at large with a province-wide warrant for his arrest. He faces charges of fraud exceeding $5000 and possessing proceeds of crime. Police have already arrested four other men linked to the scheme. Investigators describe the operation as a well-planned effort to exploit financial systems and clean dirty money.
The accused, Elliot Miao, 42, Van Bau Ta, 39, Hassan Jaafar Haydar Ahmad, 37, and Dennis Jones, 42, showed up in the Alberta Court of Justice last week. They face charges from fraud and money laundering to owning criminal property. Miao also has a narcotics trafficking charge after police found cocaine when they searched with warrants.
Investigators claim the group made coordinated withdrawals at several casino ATMs, timing their transactions to avoid getting caught. This action messed up ATM networks in the area and showed flaws in the systems that banks and casinos use to stop misuse.
The RCMP Federal Policing Northwest Region led an investigation that involved six search warrants in Edmonton. The Edmonton Police Service, the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC), and several banks supported this effort. Officials said the case shows how teamwork between public agencies and the private sector plays a key role in combating modern financial crime.
AGLC representatives pointed out that casino operators in the province must follow strict reporting and surveillance rules under Canada’s anti-money laundering laws. The specific casinos affected remain unnamed, but the Edmonton region has seven licensed facilities. AGLC said its policies helped spot problems and backed the RCMP’s investigation.
Compliance experts say this fraud shows how criminals change their methods to take advantage of weak spots in reporting limits and transaction checks. They claim that casinos, which deal with lots of cash, are still easy targets unless they keep improving their detection systems and teach their front-line workers to notice coordinated actions like several big withdrawals happening one after another.
For now, the case highlights both the money and crime aspects of casino-related fraud. Besides the million-dollar losses, finding drugs during the raids points to a bigger criminal operation where financial crimes and drug dealing overlap.
The post Casino ATM Scam in Edmonton Reveals Money Laundering and Drug Links appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
Bragg Gaming Group, a leading online gaming technology provider, has confirmed a major cybersecurity incident that compromised its internal IT infrastructure in the early hours of Saturday, August 16, 2025.
The company detected unauthorized intrusion attempts that successfully breached its internal network, triggering an immediate and comprehensive incident response.
Key Takeaways
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Bragg Gaming Group experienced a cybersecurity breach involving access to internal IT systems.
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No customer personal data or payment information appears to have been compromised.
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The company has enacted full containment and investigation protocols.
Details of the Breach
According to a preliminary forensic analysis by Bragg’s internal security team, the attack was a targeted breach aimed at the company’s internal computer environment. While the exact method of intrusion is still under investigation, early indicators suggest a sophisticated exploit of internal network vulnerabilities.
Fortunately, the company’s customer-facing systems, including sensitive user data and financial information, appear to have been unaffected. Bragg’s existing encryption protocols and access control systems successfully prevented the attackers from accessing customer information.
Immediate Response Measures
In response to the breach, Bragg launched a multi-tiered containment strategy, including:
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Network Segmentation to isolate affected systems
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Enhanced Monitoring of data flows across its Remote Games Server (RGS) platform
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Security Audits of critical infrastructure, including the Bragg Hub and PAM systems
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Engagement of Independent Cybersecurity Experts to assist in incident analysis and system hardening
Bragg’s Security Operations Center has also elevated its alert level, initiating 24/7 monitoring across all server clusters and network endpoints. In addition, company-wide penetration testing is now underway to proactively identify any residual vulnerabilities.
Business Continuity Maintained
Despite the severity of the breach, Bragg reports that its operations remain unaffected. All gaming services, including iCasino and sportsbook offerings across regulated markets, continue to function without disruption.
“While this incident is deeply concerning, we are confident in the rapid and thorough response initiated by our team,” a company spokesperson stated. “We remain committed to protecting our infrastructure, our partners, and most importantly, our players.”
Looking Ahead
As part of its response, Bragg has also launched mandatory security awareness training for all employees to reinforce best practices and prevent future incidents.
Cybersecurity analysts will continue working with Bragg to determine the full scope of the attack, improve system resilience, and maintain the trust of its users and stakeholders.
Bragg’s handling of the incident highlights both the evolving nature of cybersecurity threats and the importance of robust, responsive defense systems in the digital gaming sector.
Source: cybersecuritynews.com
The post Bragg Confirms Cyber Attack – Hackers Access Internal IT Systems appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
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