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Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare

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Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency

Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.

The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.

To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).

Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.

In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.

In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?

Not enough data, captain

But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.

Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.

Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season –  or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.

Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.

Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…

In polls, we trust

In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.

If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?

Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.

And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.

So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?

Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.

While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.

That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.

We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.

And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.

His opponent is at 63%. Who will win? 

We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.

What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.

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Canada

Bragg Gaming Group Enteres into New Financing Agreement with Bank of Montreal

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Bragg Gaming Group, a leading global B2B iGaming content and technology provider, announced it has entered into a new financing agreement with the Bank of Montreal (BMO), a leading North American financial institution, pursuant to which BMO has made available to the Company certain credit facilities in a maximum aggregate amount of up to US$6.0 million to support its ongoing working capital and general corporate requirements (the BMO Facilities).

In connection with the closing of the BMO Facilities, Bragg has successfully repaid in full the outstanding promissory note with entities controlled by Doug Fallon (the Prior Note Indebtedness). The new BMO Facilities replace the Prior Note Indebtedness, signalling a significant step in the Company’s financial strategy to partner with a major commercial bank to support its growth.

“We are very pleased to establish this new relationship with the Bank of Montreal, a recognized leader in financial services. This new credit facility strengthens our balance sheet and provides us with a flexible capital structure to execute our strategic plan. The ability to secure financing from a major North American bank underscores the confidence in our business and our long-term growth prospects. We look forward to a long and successful partnership with BMO,” said Robbie Bressler, CFO of Bragg Gaming Group.

The BMO Facilities are secured by, amongst other things, a first-ranking security interest over all of the assets of the Company and certain of its key operating subsidiaries, and are uncommitted and are repayable upon the earlier of (i) demand by BMO, (ii) the occurrence of certain insolvency events, and (iii) on the one-year anniversary of the closing date, unless a one-year extension is granted at BMO’s discretion.

The agreement includes customary legal and financial covenants, including a requirement for the Company to maintain a Total Funded Debt to EBITDA ratio not exceeding 2.50:1.00, and a Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio of not less than 1.25:1.00. These financial covenants are to be tested on a consolidated basis at the end of each fiscal quarter.

The Company currently expects to draw on the BMO Facilities in Canadian dollars, which would result in estimated borrowing costs of 6.9%–7.9% for Prime-based loans or 5.9%–6.9% for CORRA-based loans, depending on the period of the draw and the Company’s leverage ratio. Standby fees on the unused portion of the revolving facility will range from 0.75% to 1.75% per annum, depending on leverage.

Management believes that based on the terms of the BMO Facilities, the Company’s borrowing costs on an annualized basis will be less than half of its Prior Note Debt.

Matevž Mazij, CEO of Bragg Gaming Group, said: “Securing this BMO facility represents a critical milestone in our strategic plan to strengthen Bragg’s financial foundation and accelerate value creation for our shareholders. With our cybersecurity incident contained and our borrowing costs cut by more than half, we are laser-focused on executing our strategic shift toward higher-quality earnings. The Company is prioritizing margin and cash generation over lower-margin revenue, and synergies realized post-quarter end to become a leaner operation. We’ve already realized EUR 2 million in annualized synergies and are on track to achieve our 20% Adjusted EBITDA margin target for the second half of 2025.

“Our recent leadership additions in AI and innovation, combined with our expanding partnerships with operators like Fanatics and Hard Rock Digital, position us to pursue highly accretive growth opportunities methodically. The Company remains focused on growing the business in a sustainable and margin-accretive manner, with strong momentum in the proprietary content and technology pipeline positioning Bragg for long-term profitable growth.

“We understand the importance of delivering results for our shareholders, and our board and management team are fully aligned and committed to executing the strategic initiatives that will drive value. With improved financial flexibility, a strengthened operational foundation, and clear milestones ahead, we believe we have the right strategy and team in place to unlock Bragg’s full potential. We remain committed to maximizing shareholder value as we build sustainable, profitable growth and ensure our strong operational performance translates into appropriate market valuation.”

Cyber Breach Update

The Company has also provided an update on its previously announced cybersecurity incident initially detected on August 16, 2025.

Immediately following detection, Bragg took appropriate steps to mitigate any potential impact of the breach. With the assistance of independent cybersecurity experts, the Company has followed industry best practices and considers that the incident is now resolved.

There continues to be no indication that any personal information was affected and the breach has had no impact on the ability of the Company to continue its operations. Bragg has also provided assurances to its customers regarding the security of its game titles. The Company has experienced no negative impact on its revenue or profitability and does not expect that the cost of responding to the incident will have a material financial impact on the Company.

The Company has already applied knowledge gathered from the investigation of the event to enhance its cyber security defenses.

The post Bragg Gaming Group Enteres into New Financing Agreement with Bank of Montreal appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.

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Betty

Thunderkick commits to growth in Ontario with Betty partnership

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Independent slots studio Thunderkick has agreed a deal with Ontario-based operator Betty to supply the rapidly growing online casino with a diverse collection of globally popular titles.

Betty, an official partner of sporting franchises Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors, has risen to prominence since its 2022 establishment, when it was built following the consultation of 300 casino players to create the optimal iGaming environment.

Distinguishing itself from North American competitors by catering specifically to slot enthusiasts rather than sports bettors, the operator has curated a portfolio of 2,800 games, hand-picked to deliver customers maximum entertainment value.

Thunderkick’s content is the latest to be integrated into Betty’s online casino, and the agreement will see a selection of its most popular titles, including The Wildos 2, Midas Golden Touch 3, and Esqueleto Explosivo 3, made available to a greater number of Ontarian players.

Thunderkick marked its debut in the Canadian province in Q2 of 2024, and has since partnered with a network of leading operators to improve its market position. The collaboration with Betty will further amplify its visibility in a key jurisdiction as the provider looks to reinforce its reputation as a global slot developer.

Svante Sahlström, CCO at Thunderkick, said: “It’s our mission at Thunderkick to go deeper, not wider, in 2025. That means forging meaningful, lasting relationships in target markets as opposed to securing as many commercial deals as possible.

“Since entering Ontario over 12 months ago, we have worked tirelessly to enhance our presence in the province, and working with leading brands such as Betty allows us to bring our unique games to a deeper pool of Canadian players.”

Paraskeva Smirnova, Casino Operations Manager at Betty, added: “Betty’s USP has always been our drive to build a slot portfolio with the very best titles from the industry’s most creative suppliers.

“Thunderkick’s passion for slot development is there for all to see, and the introduction of its games to our casino further elevates the consumer experience.”

The post Thunderkick commits to growth in Ontario with Betty partnership appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.

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BCLC

Save the Date: BCLC’s New Horizons in Safer Gambling Conference Returns November 2026

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BCLC is pleased to announce the return of the New Horizons in Safer Gambling Conference, taking place November 2–4, 2026, at the JW Marriott Parq Vancouver.

This global event brings leading voices in research, policy and industry together to explore innovative approaches to safer gambling. Attendees can expect two days of forward-thinking dialogue, evidence-based insights and collaborative solutions to help shape the future of player health.

Sponsorship Opportunities Now Available

New to the 2026 conference, BCLC is excited to offer sponsorship opportunities to organizations that share BCLC’s passion for safer gambling. Benefits of sponsoring New Horizons 2026 include industry visibility, leadership recognition and meaningful engagement with a global audience. To learn more about sponsorship, please e-mail [email protected].

Registration and program details will be released later this fall.

The post Save the Date: BCLC’s New Horizons in Safer Gambling Conference Returns November 2026 appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.

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