Betting odds on the German federal election swung firmly towards Olaf Scholz and his SPD party after polls indicated that he won the first televised debate of the campaign.
Markets now give Scholz a 56% probability of becoming the country’s next chancellor, up from 36% on August 23, prices compiled by crypto sportsbook Cloudbet show. He has now taken the lead from main rival Armin Laschet, whose likelihood of becoming chancellor slumped to 44% from 63%.
Cloudbet is the only major crypto operator offering German election markets. The odds are hosted on an enriched event page that charts real-time price movements and will live-stream future debates for players to seize betting opportunities as odds shift.
The page will also contain the Cloudbet Opinion, a visual representation of which party bettors are favoring with their wagers, and a useful alternative voting indicator to opinion polls. Cloudbet first unveiled the feature to good effect ahead of the US presidential election in November. Bets placed on Cloudbet for that election were closer to the final result than official poll results, especially in predicting state-by-state outcomes.
“Betting markets can offer unique insights into how segments of the voting public perceive the election,” a Cloudbet election expert said. “We will continue to monitor movements as the debates and campaigns continue.”
Sunday’s 100-minute debate was largely uncontroversial, with views on climate change proving to be one point of difference between the three chancellor candidates. Some 36% of viewers picked Scholz, according to a Forsa poll for broadcasters RTL/ntv. The Greens’ Annalena Baerbock placed second with 30%, while Laschet was last with 25%.
Founded in 2013, Cloudbet established itself as one of the world’s leading bitcoin betting operators, with a reputation built on unparalleled security and speedy withdrawals. Players on the German site can bet with 12 cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, USDT, Dogecoin and Dash.
In June this year, the operator launched a fully localised website to provide better services for German customers. It also hosts a Telegram community for German-speaking customers to engage with other like-minded betting fans.